So This Is What Deficit Relief Looks Like?

Well, Ezra Klein is not impressed. Not at all. And he's probably right not to be, as he's probably right that it's not going to become law "as is." The fact is though, today was the day that Senator Simpson and Erskin Bowles presented the first real deficit reduction plan this country has had since the days of William Jefferson Clinton's budgets. Unfortunately, Klein correctly points out that it won't get too far.

It's worth taking a moment to consider how we got here: The fiscal commission we have is not the fiscal commission we were supposed to have. The fiscal commission we were supposed to have was the brainchild of Kent Conrad and Judd Gregg, the two senior members of the Senate Budget Committee. "The inability of the regular legislative process to meaningfully act on [the deficit] couldn't be clearer," they wrote. Their proposal would have set up a commission dominated by members of Congress and able to fast-track its consensus recommendations through the congressional process -- no delays, no amendments. But that proposal was filibustered in the Senate, mainly by Republicans who worried it would end in tax increases.

So the president stepped in and created a fiscal commission of his own. Like the Conrad-Gregg commission, it had 18 members, though fewer of them were members of Congress. Like the Conrad-Gregg commission, it would need 14 of its 18 participants to agree to report out its recommendations. But unlike the Conrad-Gregg commission, it had no actual power in Congress. If 14 members agreed on the recommendations, all that meant was that ... 14 members agreed on the recommendations. They could still be filibustered, amended -- whatever. The political logic of this seemed rather peculiar: If the fiscal commission itself could not pass Congress, how would the recommendations from an executive-branch fiscal commission pass Congress? The recommendations, after all, are where the hard stuff is.

Increasingly, the concern looks to be moot: The National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform will not get agreement from 14 of its members. It might not even get a majority. Today's release, unexpectedly, is a draft proposal from the co-chairs, and that might be as close as the commission comes to a comprehensive product. "This is not a proposal I could support," said Rep. Jan Schakowsky, one of the members. Rep. Jeb Hensarling, another participant, was less definitive, but nowhere near supportive. "Some of it I like," he said. "Some of it disturbs me. And some of it I've got to study." The full commission is expected to debate the proposal over the next week.

So this is basically hopeless. Or is it? While it is difficult to see Congress voting both to curb Social Security benefits and raise taxes in one foul swoop, the GOP won at least in part by stoking fears about the future deficits. So how could they not act now? Especially while they argue for continued tax cuts for millionaires, a total budget buster.

So what's actually in this report anyway? Well, glad you asked:

The document makes five basic recommendations: First, to "enact tough discretionary spending caps" and find $200 billion in savings by 2015. Second: tax reform "that dramatically reduces rates, simplifies the code, broadens the base and reduces the deficit." The third step addresses reforms of the health system. Fourth: mandatory savings from farm subsidies and civilian and military retirement costs. And fifth: reforms to Social Security to ensure its solvency "while reducing poverty among seniors."

The chairmen say these steps could reduce the deficit to 2.2% of gross domestic product by 2015, and achieve $4 trillion in deficit reduction by 2020.

There's several important factors to remember here. First off, defense spending is not exempted from cuts and curbs here. Second, Social Security is impacted, both in benefit reductions and taking caps off of the payroll taxes. Third, there's no stomach for more Health Care reform, my guess being even on the right. All of these make me think it's not going to happen. The other part of me says this is quite the "wedge issue" for President Obama to exploit. I mean, how can he not attempt to address deficits after the GOP played with the issue, despite a bad record on it. He could use the bully-pulpit to beat on them for doing damage and not working with him, and he'd be spot on. I guess we'll see, but I'm hopeful that something will happen here.