What Really Happened Tuesday, And What It Means Nationally

Right now, Congressional offices are packing up, bringing in the moving van, and preparing to close. With good reason too, since sixty some members of the House are heading towards the Unemployment Benefits line. "Change" is the buzz word for the third straight cycle, and voters are basically going to the polls looking to "change" anything they can get their hands on. The truth is, this is easily explained right now, the economy is grim, it's long term recovery to pre-recession levels is suspect at best, and people are hearing a lot of highly negative news about deficits (which they hardly understand, by the way.). Basically, fear is in the air again, and in times of fear, elections are won by the party that harnesses those fears best. Ladies and gentlemen, the Republican Party took this "Fear Election" in a first round knockout.

So what took place Tuesday? In a purely by the numbers look, the GOP took 60 House seats so far, and John Boehner will be the next Speaker of the House, leading a caucus of minimally 239. This is the largest losses any party in power has taken since 1938, FDR's second mid-term. In the Senate, it appears that the GOP will win 6 seats, but the Democrats will still control the chamber by a 53-47 margin. So, in it's essence, we have a divided Congress, and government, from this election.

Now let's look at the politics of it. Much like many of us on the left  in 2008 (yes I'm guilty), some on the right are saying this is a generational shift their way. This is foolish thinking. Yes, they will re-draw some key state legislatures, and yes the Democrats will have to defend a lot of Senate seats the next two times by, but it would be foolish to believe the GOP's 2010 electorate is even possible to accomplish again, just as it was foolish to believe the Democratic 2008 electorate was repeatable. The fact of the matter is, this electorate was old, white, and male, more so than any other recent electorate. While the GOP will have more Senate targets and a better House map to shoot at in 2012, the reality is that they will face a younger, less white, more feminine electorate in 2012, and that is likely to at least balance itself out.

Then there is the policy implications of it. Perhaps the most telling move since the polls closed was that of the Federal Reserve Bank, who has decided to unilaterally pump $600 billion into the economy. Essentially, this is to say that they do not expect major Congressional action in the coming months and years to deal with the sluggish economy. In truth, one has to wonder how anything will happen. In the Senate, nothing passed in a 60-40 and 59-41 Senate, without major changes being made. In the new 53-47 Senate (or closer), not much that isn't very watered down either way will pass, and virtually nothing out of the Republican House will pass. In fact, one must ask what happens inside of the House? While you will have a Speaker Boehner leading the House, you will have a Majority Leader Cantor with his "Young Guns" and their agendas, and you will have Tea Party members who want to pass their agendas. So tell me this, how does Boehner really pass anything serious, that can clear the Senate, and will get signed into law, with those divisions? He doesn't.

The net effect is simple: Welcome to the 2012 Election. The President isn't likely to achieve much more major legislation, and the GOP field to face him is likely to kick into high gear now. President Obama enters a field where previously won swing states such as Pennsylvania, Indiana, Virginia, and Wisconsin swung against him in 2010. We are likely to see the House pass things like a "Repeal" of the Health Care law, and investigate the President's birth certificate. It's going to be a long two years. We may see a debate about lowering the deficit, but with the GOP pledging to not look at taxes at all to balance the budget, it's not likely we'll see much. In other words, don't expect much, but expect the bell to ring on the next round quickly.