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I was just reading about how Pat Toomey didn't beat Joe Sestak in Pennsylvania, Philadelphia turnout did. I hadn't really gone into how Democratic turnout returning to normal or worse hurt Democrats, because I had been looking at how good Republican turnout was. As I read it, it dawned on me, maybe this isn't the generational shock we think. Maybe it was just a loss, and that's it.

Why does this matter? I mean, 60 plus seats are 60 plus seats. An apple's an apple. Well, there's two ways to view this. Either you believe the 2010 mid-terms are a generational move, where the nation returned to the right-of-center politics of Reagan, and now will draw a GOP friendly map that holds for at least a decade, ushering in the end of Obama, or you believe that in two years the Democrats will win the Presidency, gain seats, and usher out the Reagan era for good, with re-districting being a side note since most of the new seats will be in places young people and Latinos live, not the old angry types. The answer you choose of these two takes us a long way towards where we're going.

The answer will play out immediately too. All told, 63 Republican House members live in seats that President Obama carried in 2008. A solid 13 are in Kerry seats from 2004. The Democrats need just 21 seats in 2012 to re-take the House, and no winning party (the party that netted more new seats) has failed to win that many new seats since 2004. A whopping 75% of "McCain Democratic" seats (Democrats in a McCain district) fell in 2010, so if that holds up for President Obama, in the event he wins again, the House is back blue, with room to spare. The list of Republicans in these seats are:

California's 3rd
California's 24th
California's 25th
California's 26th
California's 44th
California's 45th
California's 48th
California's 50th
Florida's 8th
Florida's 10th
Florida's 18th
Florida's 22nd*
Illinois' 6th
Illinois' 8th (race not called but GOP candidate leads)
Illinois' 10th*
Illinois' 11th
Illinois' 13th
Illinois' 14th
Illinois' 16th
Illinois' 17th*
Illinois' 18th
Iowa's 4th
Kansas' 3rd
Michigan's 1st
Michigan's 4th
Michigan's 6th
Michigan's 7th
Michigan's 8th
Michigan's 11th
Minnesota's 3rd
Minnesota's 8th*
Nebraska's 2nd
Nevada's 3rd
New Hampshire's 1st
New Hampshire's 2nd*
New Jersey's 2nd
New Jersey's 3rd
New Jersey's 7th
New York's 1st (race not called but GOP candidate leads)
New York's 19th
New York's 20th
New York's 23rd (race not called but GOP candidate leads)
New York's 24th
North Carolina's 2nd
Ohio's 1st
Ohio's 12th
Ohio's 15th*
Pennsylvania's 6th*
Pennsylvania's 7th*
Pennsylvania's 8th*
Pennsylvania's 11th*
Pennsylvania's 15th*
Texas' 23rd
Texas' 27th (race not called by GOP candidate leads)
Virginia's 2nd
Virginia's 4th
Virginia's 10th
Washington's 3rd
Washington's 8th*
Wisconsin's 1st
Wisconsin's 6th
Wisconsin's 7th*
Wisconsin's 8th

So can they do it? Well, if the GOP listens to it's base, I think yes. The GOP has a field full of nutjobs, has-beens, and never will-bes so far running for President, and little exciting to offer. IF the President plays his cards right, takes a page from the Clinton 1995 playbook, and plays right, yes.